[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 26 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 27 10:30:25 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Oct             28 Oct             29 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              77/16              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
There are currently 2 regions on the visible disk, region 2685 
and region 2686 and both remain quiet and stable. No earthward 
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery. 
The solar wind speed increased from 560 to 600 km/s during the 
first four hours of the UT day today (26 October) and then showed 
a gradual decrease to 500 km/s by 2300 UT. The IMF Bz fluctuated 
between +/-3 nT by 0300 UT, then between +/-5 nT by 0800 UT, 
and then stayed negative up to around -5 nT by 1500 UT. Bz varied 
between +/-4 nT thereafter. Btotal mostly varied between 4 and 
6 nT, dipping to around 1 nT for a short time around 1600 UT. 
Solar wind speed is expected to gradually decline over the next 
24 hours due to the waning of the influence of a recurrent positive 
polarity coronal hole. Very Low solar activity is expected for 
the next 3 days (27 to 29 October) with only a slight chance 
of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   22334431
      Cocos Island        12   11334331
      Darwin              12   22234421
      Townsville          14   22334431
      Learmonth           20   2-345432
      Alice Springs       13   22234431
      Norfolk Island      13   33333322
      Culgoora            14   22334431
      Gingin              16   22335332
      Camden              14   22334431
      Canberra            13   22334331
      Launceston          17   23434432
      Hobart              13   22334331    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    26   22356521
      Casey               23   36433332
      Mawson              40   34334671
      Davis               30   33444562

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            59   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18   4443 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Oct    14    Quiet to Active
28 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for 26-27 Oct. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
to Active levels across Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 26 October). 
This rise in activity was due to the continued effect of a coronal 
hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected to show gradual decrease 
to Unsettled levels through 27 October and then further decrease 
to Unsettled to Quiet levels on 28 October, and stay Quiet on 
29 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today (UT day 26 October). 
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected over the next three 
days (27 to 29 October).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Oct    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      20
Oct      5
Nov      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Oct     8    Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct    12    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal across Aus/NZ regions 
today (UT day 26 October). Nearly similar HF conditions may be 
expected in this region over the next three days (27 to 29 October).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 600 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:   335000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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