[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 October 17 issued 2351 UT on 24 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 25 10:51:28 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
There are currently 2 regions on the visible disk, region 2685
(S09E32) and region 2686 (N13E53) and both remain quiet and relatively
unchanged from yesterday. A slow disappearing solar filament
located in the north-east quadrant was observed lifting off the
sun between 00UT and 17UT. No earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO C2 imagery. The solar wind speed was at
ambient levels of 330km/s-360km/s between 00UT-08UT with Bz fluctuating
between +/-1nT. Beginning at ~10UT an anticipated solar sector
boundary crossing (SSBC) occurred and solar wind speed began
to steadily climb to ~500km/s at 19UT. During this period Bz
increased in magnitude and ranged between +12nT and -10nT with
no significant sustained southward excursions. Solar wind speed
increased again from 19UT to be 619km/s at the time of this report.
Bz has been predominantly southward from 20UT-23UT at approx
-6nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at these elevated
levels over the next 48 hours due to the influence of a recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole that extends from the equator
up to the north pole of the sun. Very Low to Low solar activity
is expected for the next 3 days with only a slight chance of
C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 14 11334423
Cocos Island 11 10323423
Darwin 13 21334422
Townsville 12 11334323
Learmonth 19 21335523
Alice Springs 14 11334423
Norfolk Island 10 11333223
Culgoora 11 11333323
Gingin 13 20224433
Camden 11 11333323
Canberra 10 11233323
Launceston 14 11334423
Hobart 10 11223423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Macquarie Island 21 20136532
Casey 15 33333333
Mawson 29 32225546
Davis 18 22334533
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 40 Minor Storm
26 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
27 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 22 October
and is current for 24-25 Oct. Quiet geomagnetic conditions for
the first half of the UT day for the Australian region after
which activity increased to Active levels due to a SSBC in the
solar wind and the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream. Minor Storm conditions are expected for 25
October and mostly Active conditions for 26Oct. Unsettled conditions
with the chance of Active periods for 27Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
26 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
27 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: MUF's near predicted monthly values for 24Oct with some
minor depressed periods for low latitudes. Expect some degradation
in HF Communication (Fair conditions) between 25Oct-27Oct for
low to mid latitudes due to increased geomagnetic activity. Poor
ionospheric support expected for high latitudes during this time.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
26 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
27 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Conditions ranged from near predicted monthly values
for Southern AUS/NZ regions to slightly depressed MUF's for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions during local day for 24Oct. Increased
geomagnetic activity over the next 3 days is expected to result
in notable MUF depressions for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ
regions over this time. Poor ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions expected during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 27600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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