[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 18 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 19 10:30:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 78/17 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 18 October.
The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Expect Very Low
levels of solar activity for the next three days (19-21 October).
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery up to 18/1448UT. However two strong CMEs were noted
on the backside of the Sun via LASCO C2 imagery beginning at
18/0548UT and 18/0748UT with an associated Type II sweep at 18/0539UT,
estimated at 1500km/s. The solar wind decreased from 455 to 350
km/s over the past 24 hours and is currently ~350 km/s. The IMF
Btotal ranged between 2-6 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated
between +4/-5 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain near nominal
levels for the next three days, though there will likely be a
slight increase on 20-21 October due to a weak recurrent coronal
hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11021011
Cocos Island 2 01010012
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 3 11121011
Learmonth 3 11022012
Alice Springs 3 11021012
Culgoora 2 11021011
Gingin 3 10022022
Camden 3 11022011
Canberra 2 11021011
Launceston 5 12132011
Hobart 4 11032011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 01132000
Casey 11 34321023
Mawson 17 23221136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2112 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 6 Quiet
20 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The magnetic field over Australia was at mostly Quiet
levels during the UT day, 18 October. The Antarctic region was
at Unsettled to Quiet levels. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
today and Unsettled to Quiet conditions on 20-21 October due
to possible effects from a weak negative polarity equatorial
coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUFs with minor depressions possible
over the next three days due to very low solar activity levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
20 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
21 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs in most of the Australian region
with Minor depressions observed during the local day in the Northern
Australian region for the UT day, 18 October. Expect near predicted
MUFs for the next three days with a chance of Minor depressions
during local daytime hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list