[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 17 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 18 10:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 72/8 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 17 October.
The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Expect Very Low
levels of solar activity for the next three days (18-20 October).
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery up to 17/1800UT. The solar wind decreased from 525
to 440 km/s over the past 24 hours and is currently ~450. The
IMF Btotal ranged between 3-4 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated
between +/-3 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain at nominal
levels today, 18 October, though there is a chance for an increase
in wind speed due to a coronal hole extending down to 20 degrees
north in latitude from the northern pole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21132111
Townsville 5 21132111
Learmonth 4 21122111
Norfolk Island 6 2322201-
Culgoora 4 21122011
Camden 5 21132111
Canberra 2 10022010
Launceston 6 22132111
Hobart 5 11132111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Macquarie Island 9 11244200
Casey 10 34322112
Mawson 17 32322354
Davis 9 22422221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1321 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 6 Quiet
19 Oct 6 Quiet
20 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The magnetic field over Australia was at mostly Quiet
levels with a brief period of Unsettled conditions midway through
the UT day, 17 October. The Antarctic region was at Active to
Quiet levels. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next two
days in the Australian region. Midway through the UT day, 20
October, expect an increase from Quiet to Unsettled conditions
due to small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUFs with minor depressions possible
over the next three days due to very low solar activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
19 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
20 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs during the local night with Minor
depressions observed during the local day in the Australian region
for the UT day, 17 October. Expect near predicted MUFs for the
next three days with a chance of Minor depressions during local
daytime hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 378000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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