[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 17 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 18 10:30:23 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Oct             19 Oct             20 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               72/8               74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 17 October. 
The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Expect Very Low 
levels of solar activity for the next three days (18-20 October). 
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO 
C2 imagery up to 17/1800UT. The solar wind decreased from 525 
to 440 km/s over the past 24 hours and is currently ~450. The 
IMF Btotal ranged between 3-4 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated 
between +/-3 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain at nominal 
levels today, 18 October, though there is a chance for an increase 
in wind speed due to a coronal hole extending down to 20 degrees 
north in latitude from the northern pole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21132111
      Townsville           5   21132111
      Learmonth            4   21122111
      Norfolk Island       6   2322201-
      Culgoora             4   21122011
      Camden               5   21132111
      Canberra             2   10022010
      Launceston           6   22132111
      Hobart               5   11132111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     9   11244200
      Casey               10   34322112
      Mawson              17   32322354
      Davis                9   22422221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1321 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Oct     6    Quiet
19 Oct     6    Quiet
20 Oct    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: The magnetic field over Australia was at mostly Quiet 
levels with a brief period of Unsettled conditions midway through 
the UT day, 17 October. The Antarctic region was at Active to 
Quiet levels. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next two 
days in the Australian region. Midway through the UT day, 20 
October, expect an increase from Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
due to small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUFs with minor depressions possible 
over the next three days due to very low solar activity levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Oct    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
  Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      20
Oct      5
Nov      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
19 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
20 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs during the local night with Minor 
depressions observed during the local day in the Australian region 
for the UT day, 17 October. Expect near predicted MUFs for the 
next three days with a chance of Minor depressions during local 
daytime hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 535 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:   378000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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