[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 October 17 issued 2332 UT on 14 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 15 10:32:04 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Oct             16 Oct             17 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day, 14 
October. For the 6th day in row, no numbered sunspot group on 
the earthward side of the solar disk. Expect Very Low levels 
of solar activity to continue for the next three days (15-17 
October). No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
LASCO imagery on UT day 14 October. Over the past 24 hours, the 
solar wind remained enhanced due to the recent coronal hole, 
peaked at 750 km/s at 0730UT but gradually decreased to 600 km/s 
currently. The IMF Bt varied between 9 to 5 nT. The Bz component 
of IMF has been mainly southward, varying between +/- 7 nT. The 
solar wind is expected to continue to decline, returning to nominal 
values on 17 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      21   33454332
      Townsville          18   33444332
      Learmonth           22   33354433
      Norfolk Island      16   33443322
      Culgoora            18   33453322
      Camden              18   33453322
      Canberra            13   22443321
      Launceston          25   33554432
      Hobart              23   33554332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    48   44675522
      Casey               25   45543332
      Mawson              61   74554753

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              67   (Active)
      Canberra            74   (Active)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             34                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             50   3424 6765     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Oct    20    Quiet to Active
16 Oct    12    Unsettled
17 Oct     8    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Active to Minor Storm across 
the Australian region at the start of the UT day, 14 October, 
then decreased to Quiet to Unsettled levels later in the UT day. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to continue to decrease over 
the next three days as solar winds slowly decline. Active conditions 
may be observed on day one, 15 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Fair-normal    Poor-fair      Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-poor      Fair-poor
16 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Fair-poor
17 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded HF communication conditions for the next 24 
hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Oct   -15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Disturbed ionospheric support.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      20
Oct      5
Nov      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Oct   -15    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%
17 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 14 October 
and is current for 14-15 Oct. Degraded HF conditions across most 
of the Australian/NZ and Antarctic regions during the last 24 
hours. Mild to Moderate depression observed across Aus/NZ region. 
Disturbed periods observed for Low to Mid latitudes over the 
past 24 hours. High latitudes experienced poor HF conditions. 
Sporadic E and Spread F were also observed at times across the 
Australian region which may have contributed to degraded HF conditions. 
These is due to increased geomagnetic activity caused by the 
coronal hole adding to low solar flare activity. Similar, yet 
improving conditions may be expected to prevail over the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 587 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:   277000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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