[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 15 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 16 10:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day, 15
October. For the 7th day in row, no numbered sunspot group on
the earthward side of the solar disk. Expect Very Low levels
of solar activity to continue for the next three days (16-18
October). No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery on UT day 15 October. The solar wind continued
to decrease over the past 24 hours from 700 km/s to 530km/s currently.
The IMF Bt stayed around 5 nT while the Bz component fluctuated
between +/- 5 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue to decline,
returning to nominal values on 17 October, then possibly becoming
enhanced later on 18 October due to the influence of another
small coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Active
with one isolated Minor Storm period
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 33244421
Townsville 14 33244321
Learmonth 19 33245422
Norfolk Island 14 23344321
Culgoora 15 23244421
Camden 15 23244421
Canberra 11 23234310
Launceston 21 34345422
Hobart 18 34344421
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 38 35466520
Casey 14 33333332
Mawson 42 56534463
Davis 22 34443351
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 27 5445 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 15 Quiet to Active
17 Oct 8 Mostly Quiet
18 Oct 20 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Active with one isolated
Minor Storm period across the Australian region over the UT day
15 October. Major Storm periods were observed in the the Antarctic
region. Today, 16 October, the magnetic activity is expected
to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled and at times could reach Active
levels. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the subsequent
day (17 October) as the current coronal hole effects wane. However,
from 18 October the magnetic activity is expected to reach Active
levels in response to another coronal hole reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions is expected to continue
to improve over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Disturbed ionospheric support over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Propagation conditions has improved slightly over the
last 24 hours. Mild to Moderate depression observed for low to
Mid latitudes. Disturbed periods observed at Higher latitudes.
Sporadic E and Spread F were also observed at times across the
Australian region. Further improvement in HF conditions is expected
over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 667 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 485000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list