[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 15 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 16 10:30:23 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Oct             17 Oct             18 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day, 15 
October. For the 7th day in row, no numbered sunspot group on 
the earthward side of the solar disk. Expect Very Low levels 
of solar activity to continue for the next three days (16-18 
October). No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
LASCO imagery on UT day 15 October. The solar wind continued 
to decrease over the past 24 hours from 700 km/s to 530km/s currently. 
The IMF Bt stayed around 5 nT while the Bz component fluctuated 
between +/- 5 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue to decline, 
returning to nominal values on 17 October, then possibly becoming 
enhanced later on 18 October due to the influence of another 
small coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Active 
with one isolated Minor Storm period

Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      16   33244421
      Townsville          14   33244321
      Learmonth           19   33245422
      Norfolk Island      14   23344321
      Culgoora            15   23244421
      Camden              15   23244421
      Canberra            11   23234310
      Launceston          21   34345422
      Hobart              18   34344421    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    38   35466520
      Casey               14   33333332
      Mawson              42   56534463
      Davis               22   34443351

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             27   5445 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Oct    15    Quiet to Active
17 Oct     8    Mostly Quiet
18 Oct    20    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Active with one isolated 
Minor Storm period across the Australian region over the UT day 
15 October. Major Storm periods were observed in the the Antarctic 
region. Today, 16 October, the magnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled and at times could reach Active 
levels. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the subsequent 
day (17 October) as the current coronal hole effects wane. However, 
from 18 October the magnetic activity is expected to reach Active 
levels in response to another coronal hole reaching geoeffective 
location on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF communication conditions is expected to continue 
to improve over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Oct    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Disturbed ionospheric support over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      20
Oct      5
Nov      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
17 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Propagation conditions has improved slightly over the 
last 24 hours. Mild to Moderate depression observed for low to 
Mid latitudes. Disturbed periods observed at Higher latitudes. 
Sporadic E and Spread F were also observed at times across the 
Australian region. Further improvement in HF conditions is expected 
over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 667 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:   485000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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