[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 October 17 issued 2335 UT on 09 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 10 10:35:59 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 9 October,
with no flares. There is currently no numbered sunspot group
on the earthward side of the solar disk. Expect mostly Very Low
levels of solar activity for the next three days (10-12 October).
No significant Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery on UT day 9 October. The solar wind speed was mostly
near nominal levels,during the last 24 hours. It decreased from
425km/s at beginning to UT day to 325 km/s by the end of UT day.
The IMF Bt was weak, fluctuating between 2 nT and 5 nT during
the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -2
nT and +4 nT mostly northward. Late today or thereabout, expect
the solar winds to enhance in response to a recurrent positive
polarity Northern hemisphere coronal hole soon reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk. During previous rotations, the solar
winds associated with the approaching coronal hole reached mean
daily speeds of 720 km/s. Similar effects are expected in this
rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Townsville 1 21000000
Learmonth 2 12100001
Norfolk Island 2 10110002
Culgoora 0 11000000
Camden 0 10000001
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 0 11000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Davis 3 32200000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1200 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 15 Initially Quiet and may reach active levels by
end of UT day.
11 Oct 20 Active to Minor Storm
12 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 9 October. Today, 10 October, the
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet during the
early part of UT day, however, by the end of UT day could reach
Active levels in response to the approaching positive polarity
coronal hole. Active conditions with possible Minor Storm levels
are expected to persist on 11-12 October due to the coronal hole
effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced.
11 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region with periods of
minor enhancements. Sporadic E was also observed. Similar conditions
are expected today, 10 October. Minor depressions are possible
at mid to high latitudes, 11-12 October due the predicted rise
in geomagnetic activity associated with the passage of the coronal
hole on this days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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