[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 08 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 9 10:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 8 October).
Four B-class flares were observed today, the largest being a
B5.0 flare from region 2683. The B5.0 flare peaked at 0647 UT.
There is currently no numbered sunspot group on the earthward
side of the solar disk. The solar wind speed varied mostly between
400 and 450 km/s during the UT day today. The total IMF, Bt,
varied mostly between 4 and 8 nT today. IMF Bz showed variations
in the approximate range of +/-5 nT most of the times today.
Solar wind stream is expected to remain at the normal levels
on 9 and 10 October and is then expected to gain some strength
from the second half of 11 November due to the effect of a positive
polarity recurrent coronal hole. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next three days (9 to 11 October).
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 12100001
Townsville 3 12100112
Learmonth 2 13000000
Norfolk Island 3 12210002
Culgoora 1 02100001
Camden 2 02110001
Canberra 1 02000001
Launceston 4 13110111
Hobart 2 03000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Davis 4 23211000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs NA
Gingin NA
Canberra NA
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 4 Quiet
10 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Oct 18 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 8 October. Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions may be expected for the next two days (9 to 10 October)
with the possibility of activity rising to active levels on 11
November due to the expected arrival of a high speed solar wind
stream from a positive polarity recurrent coronal hole. Some
increase in geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels may be possible
on 10 October if the coronal hole effect starts earlier than
expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 35 % during the UT day 8 October. MUFs may be expected to
stay mostly near monthly predicted values from 9 to 10 October
UT days. Minor to mild MUF depressions may be possible on 11
October due to an expected rise in geomagnetic levels from this
day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct 12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 35 % across the Australian/NZ regions during the UT day 8
October. MUF enhancements of up to 25% were observed in the Antarctic
Regions on the day. MUFs in the Aus/NZ region may be expected
to stay mostly near monthly predicted values from 9 to 10 October
UT days. Minor to mild MUF depressions may be possible in this
region on 11 October due to an expected rise in geomagnetic levels
from this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list