[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 10 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 11 10:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day, 10
October, with no numbered sunspot group on the earthward side
of the solar disk. Expect Very Low levels of solar activity for
the next three days (11-13 October). No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 10 October.
The solar wind speed remained near nominal levels (under 400
Km/s) during the last 24 hours. A slight enhancement in solar
wind speeds and IMF fields were observed to occur from 10/2000
UT possibly due to the edge of a recurrent positive polarity
Northern hemisphere coronal hole. The IMF Bt was steady near
5 nT for the most part of the UT day and after 10/2000 UT increased
to 10 nT. The Bz component of the IMF also exhibited similar
behaviour, was mostly neutral and fluctuated between -8 nT and
-2 nT after 10/2000 UT. The solar winds are expected to increase
over the next few hours in response to the coronal hole reaching
geoeffective location on the solar disk. Enhanced solar winds
are expected to persist over the next few days under the coronal
hole influence. During previous rotations, the solar winds associated
with the approaching coronal hole reached mean daily speeds of
720 km/s. Similar effects are expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 10010001
Townsville 3 11110112
Learmonth 2 10110102
Norfolk Island 3 10022112
Culgoora 1 11010001
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 0 00010001
Launceston 1 10010001
Hobart 0 00010001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 21210002
Mawson 8 21100115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 2000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 30 Quiet to Minor Storm
12 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
13 Oct 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 10 October
and is current for 11-12 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions were at
Quiet levels across the Australian region on UT day 10 October.
Today, 11 October, the geomagnetic activity is expected to reach
Active levels with possible Minor storm levels provided IMF Bz
turned strongly southward for a prolonged period. These are in
response to the positive polarity coronal hole now taking a geoeffective
location on the solar disk. These conditions are expected to
persist on 12-13 October due to the coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region, with periods of
minor enhancements. HF conditions in this region are expected
to be between slightly enhanced and near monthly predicted values
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 86000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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