[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 November 17 issued 2342 UT on 28 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 29 10:42:29 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 2689 (N13W48) showed signs of decay over the last 24 hours.
The long filament located in the southwest quadrant remains quiet.
No earth directed CME's observed in LASCO C2 imagery. Solar wind
speed was elevated due to the effects of a equatorially located
negative-polarity coronal hole, ranging between 450km/s-500km/s
between 00UT-08UT after which it has gradually declined to be
~~430km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged between -8nT and
+6nT with notable southward periods in the first half of the
UT day. Solar wind speeds are expected to trend towards ambient
levels over the next 12 hours. An increase in solar wind is expected
late 29Nov/early 30Nov due to the effects of a southern hemisphere
polar extending negative polarity coronal hole. Very Low to Low
solar flare activity is expected for the next three days with
the slight chance of C-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22123121
Cocos Island 4 21111121
Darwin 5 21122112
Townsville 8 22123132
Learmonth 8 32223121
Alice Springs 4 21122011
Norfolk Island 6 22123121
Culgoora 6 22123022
Gingin 7 32123021
Camden 7 22223022
Canberra 5 22122021
Launceston 10 33223132
Hobart 6 22223021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 13 32245011
Casey 22 35632122
Mawson 14 34432132
Davis 15 24443221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1110 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 14 Unsettled to Active
30 Nov 11 Unsettled
01 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled
across the Australian region for 28Nov due to weak coronal hole
effects. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 29Nov
with possible Active periods late_29Nov/early_30Nov due to the
effects of southern hemisphere located negative polarity coronal
hole. Mostly Unsettled conditions forecast for 30Nov and Quiet
conditions for 01Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of depressed MUFs observed in the first half
of the UT day for low-mid latitudes 28Nov, with otherwise near
predicted monthly values in the latter half of the UT day. Similar
HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with chance of depressed
MUFs for mid-high latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic activity
29Nov-30Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for most regions
over the last 24 hours with notable depressions of ~20% for Equatorial
and Northern AUS regions. Possible MUF depressions of 10%-30%
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions 29Nov-30Nov due to anticipated increase
in geomagnetic activity. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly
values 01Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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