[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 November 17 issued 2343 UT on 27 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 28 10:43:57 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours and
expected to remain so over the next three days with the slight
chance of C-class events. GONG H Alpha imagery shows a large
filament in the South West quadrant. This feature is monitored
in case it erupts. No earth directed CMEs observed in LASCO C2
imagery on 27 Nov. Solar wind speed increased to about 500 Km/s
during 27 Nov and is presently around 400Km/s due to weak influence
from a small equatorial coronal hole. The Bz component of the
IMF ranged between +10nT and -5nT mostly North while Bt fluctuated
between +4nT and 10 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to be
influenced by high speed solar wind stream from the small equatorial
coronal hole and another southern hemisphere coronal hole over
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22113121
Cocos Island 6 22113121
Darwin 6 22113121
Townsville 9 32114221
Learmonth 8 22114221
Alice Springs 6 22113121
Norfolk Island 8 22113232
Culgoora 6 22113122
Gingin 5 21113121
Camden 6 22113121
Canberra 4 11113111
Launceston 7 22213222
Hobart 6 22113121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 12101111
Casey 25 55533223
Mawson 12 33212243
Davis 12 33322233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 12 Quiet Unsettled
29 Nov 20 Unsettled to Active
30 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled
across the Australian region during the UT day, 27 Nov due to
weak coronal hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are
expected to continue today 28 Nov with a chance of Active levels
if the Bz turns negative for a prolonged period. Conditions may
reach Minor Storm levels on late 29 Nov or early on 30 Nov due
to the influence of another coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
29 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
30 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs for the next few days due to low levels
of solar activity and anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for most regions
over the UT day, 27 Nov with notable depressions of ~20% for
Equatorial region. Sporadic E also observed at times across the
Australian region. Possible MUF depressions of 10%-30% for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions 28Nov-30Nov due to low levels of solar activity and anticipated
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 12300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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