[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 November 17 issued 2345 UT on 26 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 27 10:45:48 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 2689 (N13W20) grew slightly over the last 24 hours. No
earth directed CME's observed in the last 24 hours and current
analysis of the slow moving north-east directed CME seen in LASCO
C2 imagery on 25Nov suggests that this event will not be geoeffective.
Solar wind speed ranged between ambient levels of 290km/s and
350km/s over the UT day while Bz fluctuated between +4nT and
-5nT during the latter half of the UT day. Solar wind speeds
are expected to be influenced by a high speed solar wind stream
from an equatorially located negative-polarity coronal hole over
the next 24-48 hours. Very Low to Low solar flare activity is
expected for the next three days with the slight chance of C-class
events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11201011
Cocos Island 1 011010--
Darwin 3 112110--
Townsville 3 112111--
Learmonth 2 102010--
Alice Springs 3 11201012
Norfolk Island 4 01212122
Culgoora 2 11201011
Gingin 3 112011--
Camden 3 11211011
Canberra 2 00201011
Launceston 3 11202111
Hobart 2 01201111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 000010--
Casey 10 233321--
Mawson 5 21112222
Davis 6 12212222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3211 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 13 Unsettled to Active
28 Nov 11 Unsettled
29 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian region
for 26Nov. Unsettled with possible Active periods expected for
27Nov due to anticipated coronal hole effects. Unsettled conditions
expected for 28Nov and Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 29Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed in the first half of the UT
day for low-mid latitudes 26Nov, with otherwise near predicted
monthly values in the latter half of the UT day. MUFs expected
to be near predicted monthly values for 27Nov with possible depressed
conditions for 28Nov-29Nov due to increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for most regions
on 26Nov with notable depressions of ~20% for Northern AUS and
Southern AUZ/NZ regions during local day. MUFs expected to be
near predicted monthly values for 27Nov. Possible MUF depressions
of 10%-30% for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions 28Nov-29Nov due to expected increased
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 67300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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