[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 29 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 30 10:30:28 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 71/6 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 2689(N13W59) showed further decay over the last 24 hours.
The long filament located in the southwest quadrant stared its
transit around the west limb. No earth directed CMEs observed
in available LASCO C2 imagery. Solar wind speed stayed around
425 Km/s over the UT day while Bz fluctuated between +7nT and
-6nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to be influenced by a high
speed solar wind stream from a southern hemisphere polar extending
negative polarity coronal hole over the next 24-48 hours. Very
Low solar flare activity is expected for the next three days
with the slight chance of C-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21201212
Cocos Island 2 11100111
Darwin 3 11101212
Townsville 5 21211212
Learmonth 4 21210212
Alice Springs 4 21101212
Norfolk Island 4 11101222
Culgoora 4 21201212
Gingin 3 21100122
Camden 5 21211212
Canberra 3 21200112
Launceston 6 22211213
Hobart 4 22210112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 21200012
Casey 25 46531223
Mawson 15 43321144
Davis 14 34332124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3212 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 14 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods.
01 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet across the
Australian region for 29 Nov. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are
expected for 30 Nov -01 Dec with possible Active periods today,
30 Nov due to the effects of southern hemisphere located negative
polarity coronal hole. Mostly Quiet conditions forecast for 02
Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions ranging from near predicted monthly values
to notable depressed MUFs by 25% observed over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24-48 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
01 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
02 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 29 November
and is current for 29-30 Nov. HF conditions ranging from near
predicted monthly values to depressed MUFs of ~25% for Equatorial
regions. Sporadic E and Spread F were also observed at times
across the Australian region. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 2 days. MUFs expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values for 02 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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