[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 November 17 issued 2351 UT on 21 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed Nov 22 10:51:09 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              73/9               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The visible disk remains spotless and there were no earthward 
directed CMEs observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar 
wind speed gradually increased from 440km/s at 00UT to ~600km/s 
between 09UT-16UT and is currently 570km/s at the time of this 
report. The Bz component of the IMF was predominantly southward 
for the first half of the UT day, ranging between +10nT and -13nT 
between 00UT-05UT. From 05UT onwards Btotal gradually decreased 
with Bz currently fluctuating between +/-2nT at the time of this 
report. The solar wind is expected to remain elevated over the 
next 12-24 hours. Very Low solar flare activity is expected for 
the next three UT days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   33333333
      Cocos Island        12   33322332
      Darwin              13   33323323
      Townsville          15   33333333
      Learmonth           18   33433433
      Alice Springs       16   33333433
      Norfolk Island      12   33332232
      Culgoora            14   33333323
      Gingin              21   43443433
      Camden              14   33333323
      Canberra            14   33333323
      Launceston          24   44444433
      Hobart              17   34333423    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    42   34764432
      Casey               32   56543333
      Mawson              62   55644756
      Davis               27   35553432

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             31                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              4   0000 1123     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov    18    Active
23 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Nov     4    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 20 November 
and is current for 21-22 Nov. Unsettled with isolated Active 
periods observed for the Australian region over the last 24 hours 
due the effects of a high speed solar wind stream (HSSWS) from 
a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. Recurrency pattern 
suggest continued elevated geomagnetic activity over the next 
24 hours with Unsettled to Active conditions forecast for 22Nov. 
The influence of the HSSWS is expected to diminish by 23Nov with 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 23Nov-24Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable MUFs observed for 21Nov with notable enhancements 
and depressions. Slightly depressed MUF's and isolated enhancements 
are expected for 22Nov. MUFs near predicted monthly values expected 
for 23Nov-24Nov.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Nov    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      4
Nov      5
Dec      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
23 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values
24 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions ranging from sustained enhancements 
to minor depressions for Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions observed over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions 
are expected for 22Nov with increased chance of depressed MUFs 
for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions and poor ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions. MUFs expected to be near predicted 
monthly values for 23Nov-24Nov.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 354 km/sec  Density:    8.8 p/cc  Temp:    13800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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