[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 November 17 issued 2340 UT on 20 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 21 10:41:00 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no earthward directed CMEs observed in the available LASCO imagery.
The solar wind speed was at ambient levels for most of the UT
day at ~350km/s. From 15UT onwards solar wind speed began a gradual
increase due to anticipated influence of the positive polarity
recurrent coronal hole and is currently 430km/s at the time of
this report. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-2
nT between 00UT and 16UT. From 16UT onwards Bz increased in magnitude,
ranging between +7 and -10nT. The solar wind is expected to remain
elevated over the next 24-36 hours. Very Low solar flare activity
is expected for the next three UT days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 11101223
Cocos Island 4 10101232
Darwin 4 21101222
Townsville 6 21111223
Learmonth 6 11101233
Alice Springs 4 11101222
Norfolk Island 5 11122222
Culgoora 4 11101222
Gingin 6 11101233
Camden 5 11101223
Canberra 4 11101222
Launceston 6 11201233
Hobart 5 11101223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 01010112
Casey 10 33321223
Mawson 19 32221246
Davis 58 13391232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0221 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 17 Active
22 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed for the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Unsettled to Active conditions
with possible Minor Storm periods possible for 21Nov due to the
onset of the recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. Quiet
to Unsettled with possible isolated Active periods for 22Nov
and mostly Quiet conditions expected for 23Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 20Nov.
Minor depressions likely at high latitudes due to increased geomagnetic
activity on 21Nov-22Nov. MUFs near predicted monthly values expected
for 23Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last
24 hours. Variable HF conditions ranging from periods of enhancement
to minor depressions for Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions for 21Nov-22Nov due to expected geomagnetic activity.
Periods of disturbed ionospheric support expected for Antarctic
regions during this time. MUFs expected to be near predicted
monthly values for 23Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 16600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list