[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 20 10:30:26 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 19 November. Very
Low solar flare activity is expected for the next three UT days
with a slight chance of C-class flares. No earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar
wind speed decreased over the last 24 hours, starting around
390 km/s and reaching a minimum of 340 km/s at 19/1700UT. It
is currently around 370 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) Bt fluctuated between 0-4 nT. The Bz component of the IMF
fluctuated between +/-3 nT. The solar wind is expected to become
enhanced on 20 November due to a recurrent equatorial positive
polarity coronal hole. The effects of the coronal hole are expected
to start to wane on 22 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 12210111
Cocos Island 2 01220101
Darwin 4 22210112
Townsville 4 22210111
Learmonth 4 12220111
Alice Springs 3 11210111
Norfolk Island 3 11210012
Culgoora 3 12210111
Gingin 3 11220111
Camden 3 12210111
Canberra 3 12210011
Launceston 3 12210111
Hobart 3 12210011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 11 34421112
Mawson 15 23533132
Davis 14 23542121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2122 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 18 Unsettled to Active
21 Nov 18 Unsettled to Active
22 Nov 13 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active
periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 19 November. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled
conditions are expected for the start of today, 20 November,
with conditions increasing to Unsettled to Active levels later
in the UT day due to the influence of a recurrent positive polarity
coronal hole. Unsettled to Active conditions should continue
on 21 November, then become Quiet to Unsettled, with possible
isolated Active periods, on 22 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
22 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours MUFs were near predicted monthly
values in the Australian region. The Niue Island region experienced
minor depressions during the local night. Isolated periods of
sporadic E were observed throughout the Australian region. Over
the next day, November 20, expect near predicted MUFs. The following
two days, November 21-22, may experience minor to moderate depressions
due to expected geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list