[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 22 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 23 10:30:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible disk remains spotless and there were no earthward
directed CMEs observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar
wind speed gradually decreased over the UT day due to the waning
influence of the recent positive polarity coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream. Solar wind speed declined from ~570km/s at
00UT to ~500km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component
of the IMF ranged between +3nT and -4nT without any notable sustained
southward periods. The solar wind speed is expected to further
decrease over the next 24 hours and reach ambient levels by 25Nov.
Very Low solar flare activity is expected for the next three
UT days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Cocos Island 5 22112221
Darwin 7 22113222
Townsville 7 12223222
Learmonth 8 22223222
Alice Springs 8 22223222
Norfolk Island 11 42123232
Culgoora 8 22223222
Gingin 8 22223222
Camden 7 12223222
Canberra 8 22223222
Launceston 10 22233322
Hobart 8 12233222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie Island 20 12455322
Casey 16 34433232
Mawson 26 24334463
Davis 68 34394252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22 4553 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Nov 4 Quiet
25 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed for the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed is currently
declining due to diminishing effects effects of the recent high
speed solar wind stream (HSSWS) from a recurrent positive polarity
coronal hole. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3
days with possible Unsettled periods for 23Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUFs observed for 22Nov with notable enhancements
and depressions for low to mid latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected for 23Nov-24Nov with slightly depressed MUF's and
isolated enhancements across all latitudes. MUFs expected to
be near predicted monthly values for 25Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 22 November
and is current for 22-23 Nov. Variable HF conditions ranging
from slight enhancements to notable depressed MUFs of 10%-30%
for Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions observed
over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 2 days with further depressed MUFs for Northern AUS and
Southern AUS/NZ regions and fair ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values for
25Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 575 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 286000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list