[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 11 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 12 10:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 Nov, with no
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on
the visible disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for
the next three UT days (12-15 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 11 Nov.
Currently Earth is under the influence of the high speed solar
wind stream associated with the recurrent northern polar coronal
hole. During the previous rotation this coronal hole produced
daily average solar wind speeds in excess of 500 km/s for 5 consecutive
days. Similar effects are expected for this rotation. On UT day
11 Nov, the solar wind decreased from 640 km/s at the start to
UT day to 520 km at 11/1700 UT, then the winds started increase
again. The current solar wind speed is 540 km/s. The IMF Bt were
mostly steady near 5 nT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between
-2 nT and +4 nT. The outlook for today, 12 Nov, is for the solar
wind speed to remain at these elevated levels in response to
the slowly waning effects of the recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22233111
Cocos Island 3 11112110
Darwin 5 21123111
Townsville 7 22233111
Learmonth 7 22233111
Alice Springs 7 22233111
Norfolk Island 5 22222111
Culgoora 7 22233111
Gingin 7 22233111
Camden 7 22233111
Canberra 6 22232111
Launceston 9 22243112
Hobart 7 22233111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie Island 13 22254111
Casey 15 44432221
Mawson 15 54322212
Davis 10 33332221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 20 3443 4532
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 11 Nov.
Mostly quiet and unsettled conditions are expected for today,
12 Nov, with possible isolated active conditions. The forecasted
disturbed geomagnetic conditions are in response to the effects
of the high speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent
northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed for
10 Nov. Degraded HF conditions are also expected for the next
UT day, 11 Nov, as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov -25 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region MUFs
were near predicted monthly values or depressed by 15%-30% as
a consequence of the increased geomagnetic activity. Similar
HF conditions are expected for 12 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 651 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 317000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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