[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 12 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 13 10:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 Nov, with no
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on
the visible disk. Very low to low solar flare activity is expected
for the next three UT days, 13-15 Nov. No earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 12
Nov. The solar wind decreased from 540 km/s at the start of the
UT day, 12 Nov, to 420-430 km/s at the time of the report. The
IMF Bt was mostly steady near 3-4 nT. The Bz component of IMF
fluctuated between -3 nT and +3 nT. The outlook for today, 13
Nov, is for the solar wind speed to decrease towards its background
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Cocos Island 1 110001--
Darwin 2 110110--
Townsville 3 111220--
Learmonth 3 110112--
Alice Springs 3 111111--
Norfolk Island 3 10211012
Culgoora 3 11111112
Gingin 3 201112--
Camden 4 11121112
Canberra 3 111210--
Launceston 5 21122112
Hobart 3 11121111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 010210--
Casey 12 243312--
Mawson 11 431222--
Davis 11 23322224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3222 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Nov 14 Unsettled to Active
15 Nov 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 12 Nov. Mostly quiet and unsettled
conditions are expected for today, 13 Nov. On 14-15 Nov the geomagnetic
activity is expected to increase and can reach active levels
in response to the effects associated with the high speed solar
wind streams associated with the next recurrent northern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
14 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
15 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed for
12 Nov. Degraded HF conditions is a consequence of the recent
increased geomagnetic activity. Normal to fair HF conditions
are expected for the next UT day, 13 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov -26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
14 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
15 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 12 November
and is current for 12-13 Nov. Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ
region MUFs were near predicted monthly values or depressed by
15%-25% as a consequence of the recent increased geomagnetic
activity. Similar HF conditions are expected for 13 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 546 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 255000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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