[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 10 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 11 10:30:24 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Nov             12 Nov             13 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 Nov, with no 
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on 
the visible disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for 
the next three UT days (11-13 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs 
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 10 Nov. 
Currently Earth is under the influence of the high speed solar 
wind stream associated with the recurrent northern polar coronal 
hole. During the previous rotation this coronal hole produced 
daily average solar wind speeds in excess of 500 km/s for 5 consecutive 
days. Similar effects are expected for this rotation. At 0230 
UT the solar wind speed reached its minimum value of 540 km/s, 
then its started increasing up to 690 km/s at 1350 UT and after 
that it was slowly decreasing, currently at 630 km/s. The maximum 
value of Bt, 8.4 nT, was observed at 0520 UT, then IMF Bt was 
decreasing, currently at 3 nT. The longest prolonged period with 
negative Bz (up to -6 nT) was 0405 UT to 0645 UT. The outlook 
for today, 11 Nov, is for the solar wind speed to remain elevated 
in response to the slowly waning effects of the recurrent coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22334322
      Cocos Island         8   22233221
      Darwin              11   22334222
      Townsville          12   22334322
      Learmonth           16   22335332
      Alice Springs       15   22335322
      Norfolk Island       9   12233321
      Culgoora            12   22334321
      Gingin              14   32334332
      Camden              13   22344321
      Canberra            12   22334321
      Launceston          16   23344332
      Hobart              13   23343321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    38   24575421
      Casey               26   46443332
      Mawson              37   34544456
      Davis               30   34554353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16   4323 2334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Nov    22    Active
12 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 10 November 
and is current for 11 Nov only. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly 
at quiet to active levels across the Australian region during 
the UT day, 10 Nov. Mostly active conditions are expected for 
today, 11 Nov, with possible isolated minor storm levels; then 
the geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease. The forecasted 
disturbed geomagnetic conditions are in response to the effects 
of the high speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent 
northern hemisphere coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed for 
10 Nov. Degraded HF conditions are also expected for the next 
UT day, 11 Nov, as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic 
activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Nov   -22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      4
Nov      5
Dec      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Nov   -20    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
13 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 10 November 
and is current for 11 Nov only. Over the last 24 hours in the 
Australian/NZ region MUFs were near predicted monthly values 
or depressed by 15%-30% as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic 
activity. Similar HF conditions are expected for 11 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 542 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   254000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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