[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 07 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 8 10:30:27 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 7 Nov, with no
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on
the visible disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for
the next three UT days (08-10 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 7 Nov.
The solar wind speed and IMF Bt were steady up to 0130 UT, varying
in the vicinity of 300 km/s and 6-7 nT, respectively. Then both
the solar wind speed and IMF Bt increased in response to the
effects of the recurrent northern polar coronal hole, their maximum
values are 620 km/s and 20 nT, respectively. There were several
prolonged periods with the negative Bz reaching values up to
-13 nT. The outlook for today (8 Nov) is for the solar wind speed
to remain at high to moderate levels in response to the effects
of the recurrent northern polar coronal hole. During the previous
rotation this coronal hole produced daily average solar winds
in excess of 500 km/s for 5 consecutive days. Similar effects
are expected for this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 22 13354443
Cocos Island 18 13334443
Darwin 16 13344333
Townsville 19 13344443
Learmonth 32 23355554
Alice Springs 18 13344343
Norfolk Island 13 03343332
Culgoora 20 13354343
Gingin 26 12255454
Camden 20 13354343
Canberra 20 13354343
Launceston 28 13355454
Hobart 20 13354343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 39 13565463
Casey 26 26433344
Mawson 53 24455576
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 12 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 31 Active to Minor Storm
09 Nov 45 Minor Storm
10 Nov 28 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 6 November
and is current for 7-8 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet
to minor storm levels across the Australian region during the
UT day, 7 Nov. Active to minor storm conditions are expected
for the next two UT days, 8-9 Nov, with major storm levels likely.
The forecasted disturbed geomagnetic conditions are in response
to the effects of the corotating interaction region (CIR) associated
with the northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Nov Fair Fair-poor Poor
10 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Fair HF conditions were observed for 7 Nov. Degraded
HF conditions are also expected for the next 3 UT days, 8-10
Nov, due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov -8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
09 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 7 November
and is current for 8-10 Nov. Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ
region MUFs were near predicted monthly values with minor enhancements
in the Northern Australian Region during local night and minor
depressions after local dawn. The three day outlook (8-10 Nov)
is for the MUFs to be near predicted monthly values. Minor depressions
are possible as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 10500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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