[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 08 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 9 10:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 8 Nov, with no
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on
the visible disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for
the next three UT days (09-11 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 8 Nov.
Currently Earth is under the influence of the high speed solar
wind stream associated with the recurrent northern polar coronal
hole. The solar wind speed reached its maximum value of 690 km/s
in the vicinity of 8/0000 UT, then it was slowly decreasing on
average, currently at 570 km/s. IMF Bt was steady, varying in
the vicinity of 6-7 nT. There were several prolonged periods
with negative Bz, the longest one is from 0740 UT to 1500 UT,
when Bz reached -7 nT. The outlook for today, 9 Nov, is for the
solar wind speed to remain at high to moderate levels in response
to the effects of the recurrent coronal hole. During the previous
rotation this coronal hole produced daily average solar wind
speeds in excess of 500 km/s for 5 consecutive days. Similar
effects are expected for this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 17 34234333
Cocos Island 12 22234313
Darwin 13 33233323
Townsville 17 34233433
Learmonth 21 34335423
Alice Springs 14 34233323
Norfolk Island 18 35233333
Culgoora 15 34233333
Gingin 18 33235333
Camden 19 35234333
Canberra 18 25234333
Launceston 23 35344433
Hobart 22 35344423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 55 55476623
Casey 22 44443334
Mawson 46 56554436
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 31
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 42 0345 3476
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 50 Storm Levels
10 Nov 29 Active
11 Nov 28 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 8 November
and is current for 9-10 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
at quiet to active levels across the Australian region during
the UT day, 8 Nov. Minor to major storm conditions are expected
for today, 9 Nov; then the geomagnetic activity is expected to
decrease to active levels. The forecasted disturbed geomagnetic
conditions are in response to the effects of the high speed solar
wind streams associated with the recurrent northern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor
10 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Fair to poor HF conditions were observed for 8 Nov.
Degraded HF conditions are also expected for the next 3 UT days,
9-11 Nov, as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov -20 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
10 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 8 November
and is current for 9-10 Nov. Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ
region MUFs were depressed by 25%-30% as a consequence of the
major geomagnetic storm occurred on 7-8 Nov. The MUFs are expected
to be moderately depressed for 9 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 19.3 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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