[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 06 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 7 10:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 6 Nov, with no
solar flares. There are currently no numbered solar regions on
the visible disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for
the next three UT days (07-09 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 6 Nov.
The solar wind speed decreased from 350 km/s at 06/0000 UT to
280 km/s at 06/1915 UT. During the same time interval the IMF
Bt was steady near 3-4 nT, with its Bz component fluctuating
between -2 nT and +2 nT. Then both the solar wind speed and IMF
Bt increased and reached 300-310 km/s and 7 nT, respectively.
The outlook for today (7 Nov) is for the solar wind speed to
increase up to moderate levels in response to the effects of
the recurrent northern polar coronal hole, which is approaching
geoeffective location on the solar disk. During the previous
rotation this coronal hole produced daily average solar winds
in excess of 500 km/s for at least 5 consecutive days. Similar
or slightly weaker effect is expected for this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 0 00000001
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 1 10001001
Learmonth 0 00000001
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Norfolk Island 1 1-000012
Culgoora 1 10000011
Gingin 0 00000001
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 0 00000001
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 22100001
Mawson 5 41000012
Davis 2 31000000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 26 Active
08 Nov 28 Active
09 Nov 34 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 6 November
and is current for 7-8 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 6 Nov.
Mostly active conditions are expected for the next three UT days,
7-9 Nov, with minor storm levels likely. The forecasted disturbed
geomagnetic conditions are in response to the effects of the
anticipated corotating interaction region (CIR) associated with
the northern hemisphere coronal hole taking geoeffective location
on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
08 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions were observed for 6 Nov. Degraded
HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 7-9 Nov, due
to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region MUFs
were near predicted monthly values with minor depressions in
the Southern Australian Region during local night. The three
day outlook (7-9 Nov) is for the MUFs to be near predicted monthly
values. Minor enhancements in MUFs are expected for today, 7
Nov, in response to the forecasted active magnetic conditions
associated with the coronal hole effects, then minor depressions
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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