[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 05 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 6 10:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 5 Nov, with no
solar flares. There is currently no numbered solar region on
the visible disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for
the next three UT days (06-08 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 5 Nov.
The solar wind speed decreased from 410 km/s at 05/0000 UT to
350 km/s at 05/2300UT. This is in response to the waning effects
of the negative polarity low latitude recurrent coronal hole
in the southern hemisphere. The IMF Bt was steady near 4 nT during
the UT day. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -1 nT
and +3 nT. The outlook for today (6 Nov) is for the solar winds
to further decline towards the background levels, however, towards
the end of the UT day the solar winds are expected to start enhancing
again. This is because another recurrent low latitude northern
polar coronal hole is approaching geoeffective location on the
solar disk. During the previous rotation, the approaching coronal
hole produced daily average solar winds in excess of 500 km/s
for at least 5 consecutive days. Slightly weaker effect is expected
in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11000100
Cocos Island 0 01000100
Darwin 1 11000101
Townsville 2 21000110
Learmonth 1 11000100
Alice Springs 1 11000100
Norfolk Island 1 10000002
Culgoora 1 11100100
Gingin 0 10000100
Camden 1 11100100
Canberra 1 11000100
Launceston 1 11100101
Hobart 1 11100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 9 34320211
Mawson 4 32100111
Davis 5 22311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov 25 Active
08 Nov 28 Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 5 Nov. For 6 Nov, the
magnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for
most part of the UT day, however, may reach unsettled to active
levels towards the end of UT day. The forecasted disturbed magnetic
conditions are in response to the effects of the anticipated
corotation interaction region (CIR) associated with the northern
hemisphere coronal hole soon taking geoeffective location on
the solar disk. Mostly active conditions are expected for the
next two day (7 -8 Nov) as the high speed streams following the
CIR are expected to persist for a few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
08 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed for 5 Nov.
Similar HF conditions are expected for today 6 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during early morning
No data available at other times
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region MUFs
were near predicted monthly values with minor depressions during
local night. The three day outlook (6-8 Nov) is for the MUFs
to be near predicted monthly values. The possible minor enhancements
in MUFs is expected for today 6 November are in response to the
forecasted active magnetic conditions associated with the approaching
coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 172000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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