[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 04 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 5 10:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 4 Nov, with no
solar flares. There is currently 1 numbered solar region on the
visible disk, region 2686 (N13W87), which remains quiet and stable.
Very low solar flare activity is expected for the next three
UT days (05-07 Nov). No earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 4 Nov. The solar wind
speed was moderately elevated and remained relatively stable
varying in the range 400-450 km/s. These moderate solar wind
speeds are in response to the effects from a negative polarity
low latitude recurrent coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.
The IMF Bt fluctuated between 2 nT and 8 nT. The Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -2 nT and +7 nT. The outlook for today
(5 Nov) is for the solar are expected to begin to decline as
the effects of the current coronal hole starts to wane. The solar
wind is expected to start enhancing again from late 6 Nov as
another recurrent low latitude northern polar coronal hole approaches
geoeffective location on the solar disk. During the previous
rotation, the approaching coronal hole produced daily average
solar winds in excess of 500 km/s for at least 5 consecutive
days. Slightly weaker effect is expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 1 11001100
Darwin 3 12111101
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 3 11112102
Alice Springs 2 11101101
Norfolk Island 2 11100111
Culgoora 3 12111111
Gingin 3 11111102
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 2 01101111
Launceston 4 12212111
Hobart 3 02112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 11102110
Casey 19 45532112
Mawson 14 32223225
Davis 12 33323204
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3122 3112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 5 Quiet
06 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov 20 Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 4 Nov. For 5 Nov, the
magnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet levels. Quiet
to active magnetic conditions are expected for 6-7 Nov as another
large low latitude northern polar coronal hole approaches geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed for 4 Nov.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next two days (5-6
Nov)
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region MUFs
were near predicted monthly values with minor depressions during
local night. The three day outlook (5-7 Nov) is for the MUFs
to be near predicted monthly values. The possible minor enhancements
in MUFs on 6 November are in response to the forecasted active
magnetic conditions associated with the approaching coronal hole
effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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