[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 01 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 2 10:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 74/11 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low level on UT day 1 November,
with no solar flares. There are currently 2 numbered solar regions
on the visible disk, region 2685 (S07W71) and region 2686 (N13W48)
and both remain relatively quiet and stable. Very low solar flare
activity is expected for the next three day (02- 04 Nov). No
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery on UT day 1 November. The solar wind speed increased
gradually from 275 km/s at the beginning of the UT day to ~320
km/s at the time of writing this report. The weak enhancements
in the solar winds are in response to the effects from a negative
polarity low latitude recurrent coronal hole (southern hemisphere),
now taking geoeffective position on the solar disk. The IMF Bt
fluctuated between 3 nT and 10 nT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated
between -3 nT and +5 nT. The two day outlook (02-03 Nov) is for
the solar winds to continue to enhance as the high speed streams
associated with the coronal hole is expected to persist for few
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 10012011
Cocos Island 1 11001001
Darwin 2 10002011
Townsville 2 10012012
Learmonth 4 3-012011
Alice Springs 2 10002011
Norfolk Island 4 20002013
Culgoora 2 10012011
Gingin 2 00012011
Camden 2 10012011
Canberra 1 10002001
Launceston 3 10013011
Hobart 3 10013011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 00012001
Casey 5 12222012
Mawson 9 31112034
Davis 6 22222022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Nov 6 Quiet
04 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 1 November. Today, 2 November,
the magnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled
and occasionally may reach up to active levels. The forecasted
disturbed magnetic conditions are in response to the possible
effects from the southern hemisphere coronal hole now taking
geoeffective location on the solar disk. Mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for the next day (3 Nov) as the high
speed streams are expected to persist for a few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed for 1 November.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly enhanced to near predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. The
three day outlook (2-4 November) is for the MUFs to be slightly
enhanced to near predicted monthly values. The possible minor
enhancement in MUFs on 2 November is in response to the forecasted
active magnetic conditions associated with the passage of the
coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 284 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 10100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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