[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 3 10:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low level on UT day 2 November,
with no solar flares. There are currently 2 numbered solar regions
on the visible disk, region 2685 (S07W84) and region 2686 (N13W61)
and both remain relatively quiet and stable. Very low solar flare
activity is expected for the next three day (03- 05 Nov). No
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery on UT day 2 November. The solar wind speed increased
gradually from 300 km/s at the beginning of the UT day to ~420
km/s at the time of writing this report. The enhancements in
the solar winds are in response to the effects from a negative
polarity low latitude recurrent coronal hole (southern hemisphere).
The IMF Bt fluctuated between 5 nT and 14 nT. The Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -6 nT and +7 nT. The IMF Bz has been
southward since 02/2100 UT. The outlook for today (3 Nov) is
for the solar winds to continue to enhance to moderately elevated
levels as the high speed streams associated with the coronal
hole persists. From UT day 5 Nov, the solar winds are expected
to begin to decline as the coronal effects start to wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Cocos Island 4 11211112
Darwin 5 11222212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 32222222
Alice Springs 6 12222212
Norfolk Island 6 22212122
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 5 21112113
Camden 7 22222222
Canberra 6 21222122
Launceston 8 22222223
Hobart 5 21212112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 21110011
Casey 16 34432233
Mawson 14 43323124
Davis 13 33433122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 2 November. Today, 3 November,
the magnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled
and occasionally may reach up to active levels. The forecasted
disturbed magnetic conditions are in response to the moderately
elevated solar winds emanating from the southern hemisphere coronal
hole. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the
next day (4 Nov) as the high speed streams from the coronal hole
persists.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed for 2 November.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly enhanced to near predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. The
three day outlook (3-5 November) is for the MUFs to be slightly
enhanced to near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 13.8 p/cc Temp: 20200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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