[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 31 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 1 10:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 74/11 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low level on UT day 31 October,
with no solar flares. There are currently 2 numbered solar regions
on the visible disk, region 2685 (S08W58) and region 2686 (N13W35)
and both remain relatively quiet and stable. Very low solar flare
activity is expected for the next three day (01- 03 Nov). No
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery on UT day 31 Oct. The solar wind speed were mostly
near the nominal level of 290 km/s during the UT day 31 October.
The IMF Bt fluctuated between 2 and 5 nT. The Bz component of
IMF fluctuated between -4 nT and +1 nT, but mostly remained weakly
negative (southward) throughout the UT day. From today, 1 November,
the solar wind speed is expected to begin to enhance in response
to a negative polarity low latitude recurrent coronal hole (southern
hemisphere) now taking geoeffective position on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 0 00001000
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 1 00011001
Townsville 1 00011001
Learmonth 0 --001000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 2 20000111
Culgoora 0 10001000
Gingin 0 01001000
Camden 1 11011000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 00011011
Hobart 0 00011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 12221001
Mawson 9 41013033
Davis 5 22113011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 0000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 31 October. Today, 1 November,
the magnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled
and at times could reach up to active levels. The forecasted
disturbed magnetic conditions are in response to the possible
effects of the corotation interaction region (CIR) associated
with the southern hemisphere coronal hole now taking geoeffective
location on the solar disk. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected for the next day (2 Nov) as the high speed streams
following the CIR are expected to persist for a few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed for 31 October.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 12 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly enhanced to near predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. The
three day outlook (1-3 November) is for the MUFs to be slightly
enhanced to near predicted monthly values. The possible minor
enhancement in MUFs on 1 November is in response to the forecasted
active magnetic conditions associated with the passage of the
coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 11300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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