[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 31 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 1 10:30:19 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Nov             02 Nov             03 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              74/11              73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low level on UT day 31 October, 
with no solar flares. There are currently 2 numbered solar regions 
on the visible disk, region 2685 (S08W58) and region 2686 (N13W35) 
and both remain relatively quiet and stable. Very low solar flare 
activity is expected for the next three day (01- 03 Nov). No 
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO 
C2 imagery on UT day 31 Oct. The solar wind speed were mostly 
near the nominal level of 290 km/s during the UT day 31 October. 
The IMF Bt fluctuated between 2 and 5 nT. The Bz component of 
IMF fluctuated between -4 nT and +1 nT, but mostly remained weakly 
negative (southward) throughout the UT day. From today, 1 November, 
the solar wind speed is expected to begin to enhance in response 
to a negative polarity low latitude recurrent coronal hole (southern 
hemisphere) now taking geoeffective position on the solar disk.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00001000
      Cocos Island         0   00000000
      Darwin               1   00011001
      Townsville           1   00011001
      Learmonth            0   --001000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Norfolk Island       2   20000111
      Culgoora             0   10001000
      Gingin               0   01001000
      Camden               1   11011000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   00011011
      Hobart               0   00011000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                3   12221001
      Mawson               9   41013033
      Davis                5   22113011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   0000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 31 October. Today, 1 November, 
the magnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled 
and at times could reach up to active levels. The forecasted 
disturbed magnetic conditions are in response to the possible 
effects of the corotation interaction region (CIR) associated 
with the southern hemisphere coronal hole now taking geoeffective 
location on the solar disk. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions 
are expected for the next day (2 Nov) as the high speed streams 
following the CIR are expected to persist for a few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed for 31 October. 
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Oct    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      20
Oct      5
Nov      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Nov    12    Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were slightly enhanced to near predicted monthly 
values over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. The 
three day outlook (1-3 November) is for the MUFs to be slightly 
enhanced to near predicted monthly values. The possible minor 
enhancement in MUFs on 1 November is in response to the forecasted 
active magnetic conditions associated with the passage of the 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 304 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    11300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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