[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 May 17 issued 2353 UT on 08 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 9 09:53:56 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no significant flare activity or earth directed CMEs observed
in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between
332km/s and 419km/s over the UT day. The IMF north-south component
(Bz) varied between +/-5nT between 00UT-14UT after which its
magnitude decreased to fluctuate between +/-2nT up until the
time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at
nominal levels over the next 24-36 hours. There is a chance of
a minor enhancement in the solar wind parameters on the 10May
due to the anticipated arrival of a slow moving weak CME (from
04May) that may result in a glancing blow effect. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three days with the
chance of C-class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 4 21220121
Cocos Island 4 11211220
Darwin 5 21221221
Townsville 5 22221121
Learmonth 4 21210220
Alice Springs 4 21220121
Culgoora 6 -3220121
Gingin 5 21210231
Camden 4 11220121
Canberra 2 10210010
Launceston 4 21220121
Hobart 4 21210121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
Macquarie Island 2 20100011
Casey 8 23320231
Mawson 24 53531153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2231 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 4 Quiet
10 May 13 Unsettled to Active
11 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be at Quiet levels for 09May. There is a chance
of Unsettled to Active periods for 10May due to weak glancing
blow CME effects and Quiet to Unsettled periods for 11May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
11 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced propagation conditions observed
over the last 24 hours for low to mid latitudes and some high
latitude stations. Similar conditions are expected fo the next
2 days. Chance of disturbed ionospheric support for some mid
to high latitude stations from 10May due to a possible increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 5 About 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF's were near monthly predicted values to enhanced
over the UT day for 08May. Notable enhanced periods for some
Low latitude stations and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar conditions
are expected for 09May-10May. Possible disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions and depressed MUFs for Northern
AUS to Southern AUS/NZ regions for 10May-11May due to anticipated
increase in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 42100 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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