[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 May 17 issued 2349 UT on 09 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 10 09:49:45 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no significant flare activity or earth directed CMEs observed
in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between
~~330km/s and ~390km/s over the UT day. The IMF north-south component
(Bz) varied between -3nT and +7nT. A minor enhancement in the
solar wind parameters is anticipated on the 10May due to the
arrival of a slow moving weak CME (from 04May) that may result
in a glancing blow effect. Very Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three days with the chance of C-class
flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11112101
Cocos Island 3 11-12201
Darwin 3 11112201
Townsville 5 21122211
Learmonth 3 11122101
Alice Springs 3 01112201
Culgoora 2 11111101
Gingin 2 10111101
Camden 3 11112101
Canberra 0 00101000
Launceston 3 11211101
Hobart 2 00211001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00210001
Casey 5 22221102
Mawson 14 43312143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2122 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 14 Unsettled to Active
11 May 12 Unsettled
12 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
to Active conditions are expected for 10May due to an expected
glancing blow CME arrival. Unsettled with possible Active periods
for 11May and mostly Quiet conditions for 12May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 May Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
12 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Variable propagation conditions observed over the last
24 hours with notable enhancements and depressions for low to
mid latitudes and poor ionospheric support for some high latitude
stations. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
Chance of disturbed ionospheric support and depressed MUFs for
mid to high latitude stations 11May-12May due to increased geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable MUF's observed over the UT day for 09May. Notable
depressed MUFs for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions during
local day and enhanced MUFs for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ
regions during local evening. Mostly poor ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected for 10May.
Possible disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
and depressed MUFs for Southern AUS/NZ regions for 11May-12May
due to anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity over the
next 24-36 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 70200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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