[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 May 17 issued 2334 UT on 07 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon May 8 09:34:07 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 7 May. Very 
Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days (8-10 May) with a chance for C-class flares. No Earth 
directed CMEs have been detected in the available SOHO LASCO 
coronagraph images. The solar wind speed reached a maximum of 
380 km/s at 07/0243 UT, then gradually decreased to 330 km/s, 
currently around 340 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 1 nT to 
8 nT over the last 24 hours. The Bz component varied between 
-5 nT to 5 nT and was mainly Southward. Solar winds are expected 
to remain at nominal levels over the next two UT days (8-9 May) 
with the slight chance of minor enhancements later on 9 May or 
on 10 May due to the possibility that the weak slow-moving CME 
from 4-5 May may impact Earth with a glancing blow.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11220121
      Cocos Island         4   11210130
      Darwin               4   21220121
      Townsville           5   22221121
      Learmonth            5   11220131
      Alice Springs        4   11220031
      Culgoora             4   12220121
      Gingin               7   11220241
      Camden               5   12320121
      Canberra             3   11220120
      Launceston           6   12321221
      Hobart               5   12320121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
      Macquarie Island     6   01420211
      Casey               11   33331232
      Mawson              39   34332575

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   1211 1332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled, with a slight chance of an 
                isolated Active period later in the day
10 May    13    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 7 May. Magnetic 
conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled over the UT 
days 8-9 May, with the slight chance of Unsettled to Active periods 
later in the UT day 9 May or early on 10 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 May    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
09 May     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
10 May    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For the UT day 7 May, the Northern Australian and Niue 
Island regions experienced Minor to Moderate depressions during 
the local day and were near predicted monthly values during the 
local night. The Southern Australian region had near predicted 
monthly values during the local day and Enhanced MUFs during 
the local night. Sporadic E was observed, mainly in the low to 
mid latitudes. For the UT day 8 May, it is expected that most 
of the Australian region will have MUFs near predicted monthly 
values, while the Northern Australian and Island regions may 
experience periods with Minor to Moderate depressions in MUFs.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    31800 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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