[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 May 17 issued 2339 UT on 02 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed May 3 09:39:55 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              77/16              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 2 May. No 
Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available SOHO 
LASCO coronagraph images. Very Low levels of solar activity are 
expected for the next 3 UT days (3-5 May) with a chance for C-class 
flares. The solar wind speed varied between 380 km/s to 450 km/s 
over the last 24 hours, currently around 435 km/s. The IMF Bt 
varied between 4 nT to 7.5 nT through most of the day, and started 
decreasing later in the day, currently around 3.5 nT. The Bz 
component varied between -4 nT and +5 nT, and was mainly northward. 
Solar winds are expected to remain at nominal levels for the 
first half of day one (3 May) but may be enhanced in the later 
half of the UT day (3 May) due to the expected arrival of the 
30 Apr CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12120001
      Cocos Island         2   12110000
      Darwin               2   12120001
      Townsville           3   12120012
      Learmonth            3   12220001
      Alice Springs        2   12120001
      Norfolk Island       4   12021122
      Culgoora             2   12020001
      Gingin               2   11120000
      Camden               2   12120001
      Canberra             2   02020001
      Launceston           3   12120011
      Hobart               1   02010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                5   23320000
      Mawson               7   13210114

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2200 1212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May    12    Quiet to Active, with possible isolated Minor 
                Storm
04 May    12    Quiet to Active
05 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 2 May. Mostly Quiet 
conditions are expected for the first half of the UT day 3 May, 
but may reach Active levels, with the possibility of an isolated 
Minor Storm, later in the day due to the expected arrival of 
a CME. Conditions may be Quiet to Active on UT day 4 May and 
Quiet to Unsettled on UT day 5 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values on the 
UT day 2 May. Similar conditions are expected for today 3 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 May    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May    20    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values
04 May    20    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values
05 May    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For the UT day, 02 May, MUFs were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels over the Australian region. MUFs are expected 
to remain at mostly near monthly predicted levels early on 03 
May but may become enhanced late on 03 May and early on 04 May 
due to expected geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   178000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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