[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 May 17 issued 2342 UT on 03 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu May 4 09:42:48 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 May             05 May             06 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 3 May. No 
Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available SOHO 
LASCO coronagraph images. Very Low levels of solar activity are 
expected for the next 3 UT days (4-6 May) with a chance for C-class 
flares. The solar wind speed was around 440 km/s at the start 
of the UT day 3 May then gradually decreased, currently around 
335 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 0-4 nT, currently around 
3 nT. The Bz component varied between -2.4 nT and +3 nT. There 
is a small chance that the solar wind may become enhanced on 
3-4 May, as the weak slow-moving CME from 30 April is expected 
to have a glancing impact at Earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11121100
      Cocos Island         2   11111100
      Darwin               2   11111101
      Townsville           3   11111111
      Learmonth            3   11212100
      Alice Springs        2   11111101
      Culgoora             2   11121100
      Gingin               3   20121200
      Camden               2   11121100
      Canberra             2   11021000
      Launceston           2   11121100
      Hobart               2   10021100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
      Macquarie Island     2   00031000
      Casey                6   23311210
      Mawson               6   22223111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1201 1102     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 May    16    Quiet, with chance of Active levels and an isolated 
                Minor Storm
05 May    12    Unsettled to Active
06 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 3 May and is 
current for 3-5 May. Magnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet 
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 3 May. 
A weak slow moving CME from 30 April is expected to have a glancing 
impact at Earth on 3-4 May, possibly resulting in minor geomagnetic 
activity. Magnetic conditions may reach Active levels, with the 
small chance of an isolated Minor Storm on 4 May, followed by 
Unsettled to Active levels on UT day 5 May and Quiet to Unsettled 
levels on UT day 6 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values on the 
UT day 3 May. Similar conditions are expected for today 4 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 May     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 May    20    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 May    10    Near predicted monthly values
06 May    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For the UT day, 03 May, MUFs were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels over the Australian region. Sporadic E was observed 
in low latitude regions. MUFs are expected to remain at mostly 
near monthly predicted levels early on 04 May but there is a 
small chance they may become enhanced later in the day due to 
possible minor geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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