[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 May 17 issued 2340 UT on 01 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue May 2 09:40:49 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 1 May, with 
only B-class flares. The strongest flare, B9.9, peaked at 01/0401 
UT from Active Region 2652, which has now passed over the western 
solar limb. No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the 
available SOHO LASCO coronagraph images. Very Low levels of solar 
activity are expected for the next 3 UT days (2-4 May) with a 
chance for C-class flares. The solar wind speed gradually increased 
from around 360 km/s to 420 km/s over the last 24 hours. The 
IMF Bt also increased gradually from around 5 nT to 7 nT, currently 
around 6 nT. The Bz component varied between -5 nT and +6 nT, 
and was mainly northward. Solar winds are expected to remain 
at nominal levels on day one (2 May) but may be enhanced later 
on day two (3 May) due to the expected arrival of the 30 Apr 
CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22000011
      Cocos Island         2   21000011
      Darwin               2   22000011
      Townsville           2   22000011
      Learmonth            2   22100011
      Alice Springs        2   21000011
      Norfolk Island       3   21001121
      Culgoora             2   22000011
      Gingin               2   12000012
      Camden               2   22000011
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Launceston           2   22000011
      Hobart               1   12000010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey                9   34221112
      Mawson              12   34110025

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2012 1223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May     6    Quiet
03 May    12    Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active periods
04 May    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 1 May. Mostly Quiet 
conditions are expected for the UT day 2 May. The UT day 3 May 
will have Quiet conditions in the first half of the day but may 
reach Active levels later in the day due to the expected arrival 
of a CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values on the 
UT day 1 May. Similar conditions are expected for today 2 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 May     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May    10    Near predicted monthly values
03 May    20    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values
04 May    20    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For the UT day, 01 May, MUFs were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels over the Australian region. MUFs are expected 
to remain at mostly near monthly predicted levels for 02 May 
but may become enhanced late on 03 May due to expected geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   146000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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