No subject

high speed wind stream around 06 UT on 11 May. Sustained elevated 
solar wind speed now expected. New region rotated around south-east 
limb (SEC number 357). Some emission on north-east limb may be 
returning 338. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 11 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   4243 4332
      Darwin              19   4243 4333
      Townsville          17   4243 4322
      Learmonth           20   4243 5323
      Canberra            19   3244 4332
      Hobart              22   3254 4332
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 MAY : 
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           101   (Major storm)
      Hobart             111   (Major storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             34                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             43   6665 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May    22    Unsettled to active, with minor storm periods 
                possible. 
13 May    20    Unsettled to active, with minor storm periods 
                possible. 
14 May    18    Unsettled to active, with minor storm periods 
                possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 9 May and is 
current for interval 10-12 May. Predomiately active conditions 
expected next three days. Activity may not be as strong as recent 
disturbance but may continue for a longer duration. Recurrence 
suggests that unsettled to active conditions may extend until 
22 May, due to frequency of croronal holes on the solar disk, 
and that minor storm periods are more likely on 13 and 14 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditins expected next three days at mid to 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 May    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May    45    depressed 10 to 20%  (southern Aus region)
12 May    70    near normal (northern Aus region)
13 May    50    depressed 10 to 15% (southern Aus region)
13 May    70    near normal (northern Aus region)
14 May    50    depressed 10 to 15% (southern Aus region)
14 May    70    near normal (northern Aus region)
COMMENT: Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs depressed 15% after local 
dawn this morning. Northern Aus region MUFs again appear unaffected. 
Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs may be lower than normal over next 
three days, due to geomagnetic activity from coronal hole high 
speed wind stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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