[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 May 17 issued 2345 UT on 12 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 13 09:45:51 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no significant flare activity or earth directed CMEs observed
in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between
~~358km/s and ~434km/s over the UT day. The IMF north-south component
(Bz) varied between +5nT and -3nT with no sustained southward
excursions. Solar wind parameters are currently at ambient levels
and should remain so for the next 2 days. An increase in solar
wind speed is expected from 15May with the arrival of a high
speed solar wind stream from a positive polarity equatorially
located coronal hole. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three days with the chance of C-class flare activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11222111
Cocos Island 4 11222111
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 8 22233122
Alice Springs 5 21222111
Culgoora 4 11122111
Gingin 4 11112122
Camden 4 11122111
Canberra 2 11122000
Launceston 6 12232111
Hobart 3 11122110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00121000
Casey 6 22221222
Mawson 15 22432244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2321 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 5 Quiet
14 May 5 Quiet
15 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for
the next 2 days with Unsettled and possible isolated Active periods
on 15May due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with minor MUF depressions
in low and mid-latitude regions observed for 12May. Similar conditions
are expected for 13May-14May. Depressed MUFs for mid latitudes
and disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes for 15May
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
15 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 12May with depressed
MUFs for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ stations
during local day and near predicted monthly values during local
night. Mostly poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days. Notable
MUF depressions are expected for Southern AUS/NZ regions 15May
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 14400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list