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Sat May 13 11:07:36 EST 2017
magentic field Bz was southward during this time with a maximum
of -40nT. Bz has since returned back to neutral at the time of
this report. Aurora's have been reported in areas such as Siding
Springs Observatory in Coonabarabran NSW. Another bright significant
region is approaching the southeast limb and should roate on
disc within the next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 53 7655 4335
Darwin 43 6655 3335
Townsville 52 6666 4235
Learmonth 57 7665 4335
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 69 77-6 4335
Hobart 57 7--- 5345
Casey(Ant) 37 6545 3345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 NOV :
Townsville 101 (Major storm)
Learmonth 126 (Severe storm)
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 130
Planetary 190
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 39 1213 3567
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 50 Storm levels
10 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
11 Nov 16 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 8-10 November. Geomagnetic activity
was Quiet to Severe Storm levels over the last 24 hours in
association with strongly southward BZ. A major shock arrival
is expected on 09Nov from the X2 event and should result in
Severe Storm conditions. Another minor shock is exprected to
arrive 10Nov from the C7.9 event that occured in the last 24hrs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal-fair Fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 11 2004 1915UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
10 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
11 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be depressed for the next
24-36 hours due to the current geomagnetic storm conditions and
expected CME shock arrival. Trans-polar communications will be
affected by the proton event in progress. Fair conditions expected
for Mid to High latitudes and Poor conditions for Low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 20 depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 30 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 8 November
and is current for interval 8-10 November. Disturbed ionospheric
conditions were observed over the last 24hours with highly variable
MUF's and ionospheric heights. Depressed HF conditions forecast for
the next 24-36hrs due to the anticipated arrival of 07Nova X2.0 class
flare's shock fronts. A proton event is also still in progress and
will affect transpolar communications. Depressed conditions expected
for all Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 13.1 p/cc Temp: 62300 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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