[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 16 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Mar 17 10:30:23 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Very low solar activity has been observed over the last 
24 hours. The solar wind speed varied between 375 and 430 km/s 
until 1400 UT and then dropped down to around 360 km/s by the 
end of the UT day today (16 March). The north south component 
of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-5 nT until 0800 UT and then 
stayed closer to the normal value during this time. Solar wind 
speeds are expected to remain at these nominal levels over the 
next 3 days. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for 
the next 3 days (from 17 to 19 March UT).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21001001
      Cocos Island         1   20000001
      Darwin               2   20101001
      Townsville           2   21012001
      Learmonth            2   21012001
      Alice Springs        2   21001001
      Norfolk Island       2   20002001
      Culgoora             2   21002001
      Gingin               2   21001011
      Canberra             1   20001000
      Launceston           3   21102101
      Hobart               2   21002001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   21002010
      Casey                8   43222002
      Mawson              21   53122126

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1121 1013     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
18 Mar     5    Quiet
19 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the 
last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions are expected for the 
next three days (17 to 19 March UT) with some possibility of 
isolated unsettled periods on 17 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
last 24 hours with mild depressions for some low latitude regions. 
Nearly similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days 
(17 to 19 March UT).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Mar    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      10
Mar      16
Apr      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar    14    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar    16    Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar    16    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were mostly near 
predicted monthly values for the last 24 hours with mild depressions 
for some Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. Nearly similar 
HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days (17 to 19 March 
UT).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:   11.0 p/cc  Temp:    50300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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