[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 March 17 issued 2340 UT on 17 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Mar 18 10:40:20 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Mar             19 Mar             20 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours. 
No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO 
imagery. The solar wind speed was ~365km/s between 00UT-03UT 
after which it gradually declined to be ~330km/s at the time 
of this report. The north south component of the IMF, Bz ranged 
between +/-3nT. Chance of a slight enhancement in solar wind 
speed due to minor coronal hole effects on 18Mar. Very Low levels 
of solar activity are expected for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01110001
      Cocos Island         1   11100001
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           2   21110101
      Learmonth            1   01110101
      Alice Springs        0   00000001
      Norfolk Island       1   00100011
      Culgoora             1   1011000-
      Gingin               1   01110001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           2   01211101
      Hobart               1   01111001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   01100000
      Casey                8   33320112
      Mawson              11   22211135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   3200 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Mar     6    Quiet
20 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed for the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions are expected for 18Mar with chance of isolated 
Unsettled periods. Quiet conditions expected for 19Mar-20Mar.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions mostly normal. MUF's near predicted monthly 
values with occasional minor depressed periods for low latitudes 
and disturbed ionospheric support observed for high latitudes. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days with reduced 
ionospheric support possible for mid-high latitudes should isolated 
geomagnetic activity eventuate 18Mar.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Mar    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      10
Mar      16
Apr      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were near predicted 
monthly values for the last 24 hours with mild depressions for 
some Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days. Possible disturbed ionospheric 
support for Antarctic and some southern AUS/NZ region stations 
should isolated active geomagnetic conditions eventuate 18Mar.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:   168000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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