[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 March 17 issued 2345 UT on 15 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Mar 16 10:45:14 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               71/6               72/8

COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours. 
No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO 
imagery. The solar wind speed increased slightly from 325km/s 
at 00UT to a maximum of 407km/s at 2037UT and is currently 387km/s. 
The north south component of the IMF, Bz ranged between +6nT 
and -7nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain at these nominal 
levels over the next 3 days. Very Low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next 3 days with just a slight chance for 
C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11122012
      Cocos Island         3   11121012
      Darwin               4   11122012
      Townsville           4   12122012
      Learmonth            5   11122013
      Alice Springs        4   11122012
      Norfolk Island       3   11121012
      Culgoora             4   11022112
      Gingin               3   11111012
      Canberra             2   01011012
      Launceston           5   12122013
      Hobart               3   11111012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   01212001
      Casey               10   33332022
      Mawson              17   32232126

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1100 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar     5    Quiet
17 Mar    11    Unsettled
18 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed for the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days. Chance of 
isolated Unsettled mid latitude and Active high latitude conditions 
17Mar and 18Mar.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions mostly normal. MUF's near predicted monthly 
values with occasional minor depressed periods for low-mid latitudes 
and disturbed ionospheric support observed for high latitudes. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days with reduced 
ionospheric support possible for mid-high latitudes should isolated 
geomagnetic activity eventuate.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Mar     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      10
Mar      16
Apr      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were near predicted 
monthly values for the last 24 hours with mild depressions for 
some Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days. Possible disturbed ionospheric 
support for Antarctic and some southern AUS/NZ region stations 
should isolated active geomagnetic conditions eventuate 17Mar-18Mar.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 328 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    19500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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