[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 March 17 issued 2344 UT on 14 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed Mar 15 10:44:13 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               71/6

COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours. 
No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO 
imagery, although a notable partial halo CME backside event was 
observed from 20UT on the 13Mar. The associated CME is directed 
to the north west with no earth directed component. The solar 
wind speed ranged between 325km/s-350km/s for most of the UT 
day, with a brief enhanced period of ~380km/s between 04UT-06UT. 
The north south component of the IMF, Bz ranged between +3nT 
and -5nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain at nominal 
levels over the next 3 days, with the chance of a slight increase 
due to minor coronal hole effects from a thin northern hemisphere 
located positive polarity coronal hole on 15Mar. Very low levels 
of solar activity are expected for the next 3 days with just 
a slight chance for C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11002110
      Cocos Island         1   10101000
      Darwin               2   11102101
      Townsville           3   11102210
      Learmonth            2   11002111
      Alice Springs        1   01002100
      Norfolk Island       2   01002101
      Culgoora             2   11102110
      Gingin               2   10002111
      Canberra             1   00002100
      Launceston           2   01002210
      Hobart               2   01002210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   00002200
      Casey                7   23312211
      Mawson               9   33211133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0210 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Mar     5    Quiet
17 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days. Chance of 
isolated Unsettled mid latitude and Active high latitude conditions 
15Mar and 17Mar.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions mostly normal. MUF's near predicted monthly 
values with occasional disturbed ionospheric support observed 
for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
3 days with reduced ionospheric support possible for mid latitudes 
should isolated geomagnetic activity eventuate.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Mar     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      10
Mar      16
Apr      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were near predicted 
monthly values for the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to be 
near predicted monthly values across all regions for the next 
3 days. Possible disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic 
and some southern AUS/NZ region stations should isolated active 
geomagnetic conditions eventuate.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    23700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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