[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 March 17 issued 2349 UT on 13 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 14 10:49:34 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours. 
No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO 
imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 325km/s-380km/s 
and is currently 340km/s at the time of this report. The north 
south component of the IMF, Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT over 
the UT day. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain at nominal 
levels over the next 3 days, with the chance of a slight increase 
due to minor coronal hole effects from a thin northern hemisphere 
located positive polarity coronal hole between 14Mar-16Mar. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3 days 
with just a slight chance for C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           1   01111001
      Learmonth            2   11110002
      Alice Springs        1   01010001
      Norfolk Island       0   00010001
      Culgoora             0   01010000
      Gingin               1   10100001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   11110000
      Hobart               1   11110000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                5   23311001
      Mawson               8   22311104

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2321 3001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days. Chance of 
isolated Unsettled mid latitude and Active high latitude conditions 
14Mar-16Mar due to minor coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions mostly normal. MUF's near predicted monthly 
values with occasional disturbed ionospheric support observed 
for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
3 days with reduced ionospheric support possible for mid latitudes 
should coronal hole effects eventuate.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Mar     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      10
Mar      16
Apr      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs across most of the Australian region were near 
predicted monthly values for the last 24 hours with isolated 
depressed conditions observed at Niue Station. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values across all regions for the 
next 3 days. Possible disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic 
and some southern AUS/NZ region stations should geomagnetic activity 
increase due to a small coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 408 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   148000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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