[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 March 17 issued 2349 UT on 13 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 14 10:49:34 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 325km/s-380km/s
and is currently 340km/s at the time of this report. The north
south component of the IMF, Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT over
the UT day. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain at nominal
levels over the next 3 days, with the chance of a slight increase
due to minor coronal hole effects from a thin northern hemisphere
located positive polarity coronal hole between 14Mar-16Mar. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3 days
with just a slight chance for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 1 01111001
Learmonth 2 11110002
Alice Springs 1 01010001
Norfolk Island 0 00010001
Culgoora 0 01010000
Gingin 1 10100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11110000
Hobart 1 11110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 23311001
Mawson 8 22311104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2321 3001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days. Chance of
isolated Unsettled mid latitude and Active high latitude conditions
14Mar-16Mar due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly normal. MUF's near predicted monthly
values with occasional disturbed ionospheric support observed
for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next
3 days with reduced ionospheric support possible for mid latitudes
should coronal hole effects eventuate.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across most of the Australian region were near
predicted monthly values for the last 24 hours with isolated
depressed conditions observed at Niue Station. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values across all regions for the
next 3 days. Possible disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic
and some southern AUS/NZ region stations should geomagnetic activity
increase due to a small coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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