[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 June 17 issued 2351 UT on 26 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Jun 27 09:51:23 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. 
The solar wind speed remained slightly elevated under the influence 
of a recent coronal hole, ranging between 480km/s to 609km/s 
over the UT day and is ~540km/s at the time of this report. The 
magnitude of Bz component declined gradually over the UT day, 
ranging from +/-5nT at 00UT to be currently fluctuating between 
+/-2nT. The solar wind is expected to return to nominal values 
as coronal hole effects wane over the next two days. Solar wind 
parameters are expected to become mildly enhanced on 29Jun due 
to the influence of a small equatorially located positive polarity 
coronal hole. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 
3 days with a slight chance of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22132121
      Cocos Island         3   11121120
      Darwin               6   21132121
      Townsville           6   22132121
      Learmonth            7   22232122
      Alice Springs        6   12132121
      Norfolk Island       4   22022011
      Culgoora             5   22122120
      Gingin               8   12232132
      Camden               5   22122121
      Canberra             3   11122110
      Launceston           7   22132221
      Hobart               5   11132120    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     6   11143010
      Casey               12   33322142
      Mawson              17   53342232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            56   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   2242 2232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun     6    Quiet
28 Jun     6    Quiet
29 Jun    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet top Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for 27Jun-28Jun. 
Unsettled conditions expected on 29Jun due to the influence of 
a small equatorially located positive polarity coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-normal

COMMENT: MUF's near predicted monthly values for low to mid latitudes. 
Disturbed ionospheric support at times for high latitudes. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Jun     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      10
Jul      9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's near predicted monthly values over the 
last 24 hours. Notable enhancements for Southern AUS/NZ regions 
during the local night, depressions during local day for Northern 
AUS regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 450 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:   184000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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