[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 June 17 issued 2340 UT on 27 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed Jun 28 09:40:18 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jun             29 Jun             30 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. 
Region 2664 (N18W18) is currently the only region on the visible 
disc and remains quiet and stable. The solar wind speed declined 
gradually over the UT day, from 530km/s at 00UT to be 460km/s 
at the time of this report. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field ranged between +2nT and -3nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to remain at this nominal level for the next 24 hours. 
Solar wind parameters are expected to be mildly enhanced between 
29Jun-30Jun due to the influence of a small equatorially located 
positive polarity coronal hole. Very Low solar activity is expected 
for the next 3 days with a small chance of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111101
      Cocos Island         1   11100100
      Darwin               2   11110101
      Townsville           3   11211101
      Learmonth            3   21211100
      Alice Springs        3   12111101
      Norfolk Island       2   22111000
      Culgoora             3   12111101
      Gingin               3   11211101
      Camden               3   12111101
      Canberra             1   11101000
      Launceston           3   12112101
      Hobart               2   11112100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   01021000
      Casey                6   23222111
      Mawson              15   43323224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              18   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   3212 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jun     6    Quiet
29 Jun    11    Unsettled
30 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions are expected for 28Jun. Quiet with possible 
Unsettled periods expected on 29Jun-30Jun due to the influence 
of a small equatorially located positive polarity coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUF's near predicted monthly values for low to mid latitudes. 
Disturbed ionospheric support at times for high latitudes. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Jun     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      10
Jul      9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's near predicted monthly values over the 
last 24 hours. Notable enhancements for Southern AUS/NZ regions 
during the local night, depressions during local day for SWS 
Niue Is. station and enhanced to disturbed conditions for Antarctic 
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. 
Depressed MUF's for Southern AUS/NZ regions possible 29Jun-30Jun 
due to minor geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 533 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   250000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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