[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 June 17 issued 2340 UT on 25 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon Jun 26 09:40:58 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jun             27 Jun             28 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 25 June. 
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with 
a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed 
increased over the last 24 hours, starting at approximately 400 
km/s, peaking at approximately 530 km/s, and currently around 
510 km/s. The B total interplanetary magnetic field peaked at 
10.7 nT at 25/1202 UT and is currently around 7 nT. The Bz component 
varied between -9 to 8 nT. The solar wind is expected to return 
to nominal values as coronal hole effects wane over the next 
two UT days, 26-27 June. The solar wind is expected to become 
enhanced on day three, 28 June, due to the influence of a small 
positive coronal hole located just south of the solar equator.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12322211
      Cocos Island         4   11221201
      Darwin               7   22322211
      Townsville           7   12332211
      Learmonth            6   22321211
      Alice Springs        6   12322211
      Norfolk Island       5   22321110
      Culgoora             5   11322111
      Gingin               6   22321211
      Camden               6   12322111
      Canberra             3   01321100
      Launceston          10   12433211
      Hobart               5   11322110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    11   02444100
      Casey                9   33332111
      Mawson              40   55543256

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2132 2223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun     6    Quiet
28 Jun    12    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
across the Australian region. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are 
expected on 26 June, then mostly Quiet with isolated Unsettled 
periods on 27 June due to waning coronal hole effects. Conditions 
will become Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active 
periods, on 28 June, due to the effects of a coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Jun    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      10
Jul      9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
27 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
28 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over 
the Australian region on UT day, 25 June, with some minor enhancements 
in MUFs in the Southern Australian Region during the local night. 
Mostly near predicted MUFs, with periods of minor depressions 
in MUFs, are expected on 26-27 June due to the current Quiet 
to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   140000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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