[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 22 09:30:20 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 21 June. 
There are currently three sunspot groups on the Sun. Very Low 
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with a slight 
chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available LASCO C2 imagery up to 21/2048UT. The solar 
wind speed remained steady at 340 km/s over the last 24 hours. 
The B total interplanetary magnetic field remained steady at 
4 to 6 nT, the Bz component also remained mostly steady near 
0nT until approximately 1530UT when it went negative to -5 nT 
and has been steady for near 8 hours. Expect the solar wind speed 
to remain at nominal levels or slightly below over the next 24 
hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   00000111
      Cocos Island         1   00100120
      Darwin               2   01110111
      Townsville           2   10110111
      Learmonth            2   01100121
      Alice Springs        2   01000121
      Norfolk Island       0   00000011
      Culgoora             1   00000111
      Gingin               3   00000232
      Camden               1   01000111
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Launceston           1   00000111
      Hobart               1   00000111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   01011121
      Mawson              17   00100256

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0110 0211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Mostly Quiet levels across 
the Australian region. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions over 
the next three days due to prolong Bz today, 22 June, and possible 
influence northern high latitude (>20N) positive polarity coronal 
hole on 23 June. If this coronal hole, which has grown in size 
since last rotation, is geoeffective expect Unsettled to Active 
conditions with possible isolated periods of Minor Storm levels 
at higher latitudes possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jun     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      10
Jul      9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over 
the Australian region on UT day, 21 June. Isolated periods of 
spread F observed in the Australian region. Expect these conditions 
to prevail during the next three days

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   205000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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