[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 21 09:30:18 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jun             22 Jun             23 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 20 June. 
There are currently three sunspot groups on the Sun. Very Low 
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with a slight 
chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available LASCO imagery up to 20/2048UT. The solar wind 
speed continued to decline from 450 to 340 km/s over the last 
24 hours. The B total interplanetary magnetic field remained 
steady at 4 to 5 nT, the Bz component also remained mostly steady 
between +3/-2 nT. Expect the solar wind speed to remain at nominal 
levels or slightly below over the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01110000
      Cocos Island         0   01100000
      Darwin               1   02100000
      Townsville           2   12110100
      Learmonth            1   01110000
      Alice Springs        1   02110000
      Norfolk Island       0   01000000
      Culgoora             0   01010000
      Gingin               1   01110000
      Camden               1   01010100
      Canberra             0   0-000000
      Launceston           1   01010100
      Hobart               0   00010100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00110000
      Casey                2   12101100
      Mawson               3   22201100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2311 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jun     2    Quiet
22 Jun     2    Quiet
23 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions over the next 
three days, however there is a northern high latitude (>20N) 
positive polarity coronal hole that may influence the Earth's 
magnetic field on 23 June. If this coronal hole, which has grown 
in size since last rotation, is geoeffective expect Unsettled 
to Active conditions with possible isolated periods of Minor 
Storm levels at higher latitudes

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jun     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      10
Jul      9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over 
the Australian region on UT day, 20 June. Isolated periods of 
sporadic E and spread F observed in the Australian region. Expect 
these conditions to prevail during the next three days

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 505 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   263000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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