[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 20 09:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 June.
There are currently two sunspot groups on the Sun. Very Low solar
activity is expected for the next 3 days with a slight chance
of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery up to 19/1436UT. The solar wind speed
continues to decline from 550 to 450 km/s over the last 24 hours.
The B total interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 4 and
5 nT, while the Bz component varied between +3/-4 nT. Expect
the solar wind speed to continue to decline to below 400 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 12122000
Cocos Island 2 111110--
Darwin 4 1211----
Townsville 4 12132000
Learmonth 5 12133000
Alice Springs 3 12122000
Norfolk Island 3 12122000
Culgoora 3 12222000
Gingin 5 12133000
Camden 4 12132000
Canberra 3 02122000
Launceston 6 13233000
Hobart 4 12132000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 12233000
Casey 8 33232110
Mawson 17 24442134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3322 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 2 Quiet
21 Jun 2 Quiet
22 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region on UT day, 19 June with minor depressions
observed in the Northern Australian region. Isolated periods
of sporadic E observed in the Australian region. Expect these
conditions to prevail during the next three days
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 572 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 290000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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