[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 June 17 issued 2338 UT on 22 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 23 09:38:44 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22 June.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with
a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed
averaged around 340 km/s over the last 24 hours. The B total
interplanetary magnetic field increased over the last 24 hours,
reaching a maximum 8.8 nT around around 22/1700 UT, then started
to decrease after 22/1845 UT. It is currently around 2 nT. The
Bz component also increased over the last 24 hours from -5 nT
to 8 nT, then started to decrease after approximately 22/1810
UT. Bz is currently around 1 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain at nominal levels but may become enhanced late on 22
June or early on 23 June due the possible arrival of the effects
of a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 1 11100011
Darwin 2 11100021
Townsville 2 11100021
Learmonth 2 20100011
Alice Springs 2 21100021
Norfolk Island 1 01000021
Culgoora 1 21000010
Gingin 2 21100010
Camden 1 21000010
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 2 21000011
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 2 21110001
Mawson 10 53221011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0001 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 12 Quiet to Active
24 Jun 12 Quiet to Active
25 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Mostly Quiet levels across
the Australian region. Expect Quiet to Active conditions over
the next two days (23-24 June) due to the possible influence
of northern high latitude (>20N) positive polarity coronal hole.
If this coronal hole, which has grown in size since last rotation,
is geoeffective expect Unsettled to Active conditions with possible
isolated periods of Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region on UT day, 22 June. Mostly near predicted
MUFs are expected for the UT day 23 June but minor depressions
in MUFs may occur on 24-25 June due to possible geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 23200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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