[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 14 09:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 13 June.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3
UT days (14-16 June) with a chance of C-class flares. The B-class
flare, which occurred at 11/0144 UT from Region 2661 (N05W62),
seemed to have triggered a CME first seen in the LASCO difference
imagery data starting at ~11/0240 UT. A model run shows a possibility
of a glancing blow on 15 June. The solar wind speed decreased
gradually from 530 km/s to 500 km/s over the last 24 hours. The
IMF Bt was in the range of 3-7 nT during the UT day. The Bz component
of the IMF varied between +5 nT and -4 nT without strong southward
Bz conditions. The outlook for 14 June is for the solar winds
to approach its nominal values as the coronal hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 22121210
Darwin 3 21120111
Townsville 5 22121211
Learmonth 5 22221210
Alice Springs 3 11220210
Culgoora 3 21121110
Gingin 4 12121210
Camden 4 12121210
Canberra 2 11120100
Launceston 6 22222211
Hobart 4 11121211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 11141110
Casey 9 33212321
Mawson 15 44343211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2111 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Jun 23 Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions across the Australian region were
at quiet levels during the UT day, 13 June. Mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for the next UT day, 14 June, in response
to the moderately elevated solar wind speed. During 15-16 June
the geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active levels due
to the coronal hole effect. On 15 June a glancing blow of the
CME starting at ~11/0240 UT is also possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 14-16 June, in the
mid- and low-latitude regions. Moderate depression can occur
in the high-latitude regions. On 15 June degraded HF condition
in the high-latitude regions can be observed due to expected
increase in the geomagnetic activity. On 16 June the area of
degraded HF conditions can reach mid-latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region on UT day 13 June. Expect similar conditions
for the next three UT days, 14-16 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 245000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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